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Real Estate: Assessing opportunities and late cycle postitioning At this late stage in the property cycle, European real estate investors are being relatively poorly compensated for taking on extra risk, so positioning defensively is the most appropriate course of action.
While flows into riskier parts of the real assets universe may slow, prime assets are expected to remain in demand and less likely to experience significant repricing.
Year-on-year % change * Additional yield above comparable government bonds **High quality: unlevered infrastructure with largely predictable cash flow.
Source: Aviva Investors (for illustrative purposes only). The future returns and opinions expressed are based on Aviva Investors internal forecasts and should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature.
Long income – where indexed leases are set at the right rent to the right tenant – continues to be a safe haven on a risk-adjusted basis.
On the other hand, there has been an active flow of smaller property transactions that require finance across the full credit spectrum.
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Unless stated otherwise any views and opinions expressed are those of Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (Aviva Investors).All these factors have contributed to a robust pipeline in Q1.However, with the new infrastructure programme (‘greenfield’) remaining slow, we believe this momentum could be difficult to maintain for another year.As a result, while real estate transactions have declined in Q1 (see chart), there has been a steady flow of new real estate debt investment opportunities.And although the near-term effects of a hard Brexit on deal flow is uncertain, we expect to see decent opportunities, particularly for UK lenders, throughout the rest of the year.